Demographic Winter and Its Effects on the Society Essay

Concept Paper Final Draft demographic spend and Its Effect on SocietyFor years, people eng ripen in mind that the worlds people has been increasing annu completelyy. While it is true that a daily increment of 215,060 and yearly growth of 1.10% is happening on our world tribe of 7,174,592,903 ( unite Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs state Division, creation Estimates, and Projections Sections), the demographic form is actually changing in contrast to the beliefs of many. Historical regularts that occurred in the past, particularly the World Wars, have surface the way for the eradication of a large portion of mankind, only it to a fault resulted to commonwealth explosion. The despoil blow up, a demographic phenomenon in Western countries, rose to fame wherein rapid growth in population was recorded near 1960s.This is usually ascribed within certain geographical bounds and when the publication of annual births exceeds 2 per 100 women (or almost 2% of t he total population size) (Wikimedia Foudation, Inc). As the paper progresses, such belief will be be as a myth these days. In 1968, Stanford University Professor Paul R. Ehrlich published the controversial book, The Population break down which warned of the mass starvation of humans in the 1970s and 1980s due to overpopulation. People grew scargond of the estimation of a population explosion and its detrimental effects to society. As they acquired the paradigm that babies atomic number 18 burden, a movement not to be sexually active anymore in Western countries was created. This, in turn, resulted to a novel demographic occurrence called by demographers as Demographic Winter. Demographic winter is a world(a) phenomenon characterized by population tumble in birth rate. The term nuclear winter, popularized in the 1980s, alluded to the catastrophic environmental relate of a nuclear war.The long-term consequences of demographic winter could be equally devastating (Feder). The Total mellowness Rate, the expected number of children born per woman in her child-bearing years of 2.1, is said to be the point of residuum in which a countrys population is neither growing nor decreasing. Essentially, a woman essential replace herself and a man. This TFR is important because this only shows that an aver long prison term woman is able to produce2.1 children during her animatenesstime which is take because some children die before maturity and as well as to stabilize the number of the population. (Fluctuating Fertility The Baby gravy and the Baby Bust). When the Total Fertility Rate of a State is 2.1 births per woman who has reached the end of her productive life (that is around 50 years older), the Net Production Rate is 1, that is to say, the state has reach population age perceptual constancy.When it is not, or is less than the terra firmas previous TFR, the nation undergoes the phenomenon called demographic winter. (Fluctuating Fertility The Baby Boom and the Baby Bust). Although demographic winter is a global incident, geography and the countrys stinting location ar underlying factors that contributed to what extent and to which nations such an event would occur. Demographic winter is presently more unembellished in true countries such as in atomic number 63, Australia, East Asia (Japan) and North America (U.S.), whose populations were the first to mature. adulthood here is defined as the average age of the population relative to the frugal emergence of society. These countries also suffered the worst depopulation during the World Wars and experienced rapid population growth subsequently(prenominal) (Yew). We shall focus more on these countries as we elaborate the concept of demographic winter for the cases which will be mentioned later applies more to their population trends. Of the 10 countries with the lowest birth rates, 9 are in Europe.Overall, the European richness rate is 1.3, tumefy under replacement level ( 2.1). No European nation has a replacement-level birth rate. Italys fertility rate is 1.2. Spains is 1.1 (Feder). That means, in the not-too-distant future, these countries will lose half of their people in every generation. Russias birth rate vanish from 2.4 in 1990 to 1.17 today a fall off of more than 50% in less than 20 years. Each year, there are more abortions than live births in the Russian league (Demographic Winter). In U.S. alone, Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is almost 3.5 in the early 1960s, then began declining sharply to at a lower place 3.0 in 1965, to about 2.5 (and temporarily holding steady) in the late 1960s, and down to about 1.8 by the mid-1970s. Hence, the TFR fell by almost half between the early 1960s and the mid-1970s. After a decade of stability at a level of about 1.8, the total fertility rate rose slowly after 1986, reaching 2.08 in 1990. It presently stands at a little over 2, just slightly below the replacement level of 2.11 (Fluctuating Fertility Th e Baby Boom and the Baby Bust).Japans TFR has move ond to release since dropping below 2.0 in 1975. It slumped to an all-time low of 1.26 in 2005. The number of babies born in the nation in 2012 fell by 13,705 from the previous year to hit a new low of 1,037,101 (Durden). With such data on hand, we instanter ask what are the factors that led to demographic winter? fit to the documental film Demographic Winter a Decline of the Human Family, fertility decline is caused by (1) economic prosperity, (2) sexual revolution, (3) women in the jab force, (4) Divorce revolution, and (5) inaccurate assumptions. As catched countries continue to rise in their economic status, a paradigm shift among members of the labour force occurs. Previously, babies are considered as blessings and investments by parents. Nowadays, they are viewed by parents as an added expense and burden to them. As standards of living in the urban areas of different countries continue to extend, life becomes harder to sustain.An added mouth to feed is just something that cant be considered particularly by realists. Richer countries extremity to invest and spend their money on adults, the more affluent, whom they can use for further economic development than children. Sexual revolution is also eyed as a contributing factor wherein Feminism is evident. The number of women in their 20s who had a child in 2012 decreased by 16,200 from the previous year, while the number of births among women age from 35 to 39 and from 40 to 44 increased by a combined total of about 8,700. As more women are empowered and gain equal treatment in education and employment, they without delay opt to join the labour force, the corporate world and pursue career paths than devoting themselves to family life. Growing valuable time of working mothers constructed the mindset that they outweart want children, they want jobs instead.The labor force participation rates among married women with children, particularly young ch ildren, have been steadily increasing since 1970. In 1985, nearly half of all women with children under age 18 were in the labor force, as compared with less than 40 percent in 1970 (Hayghe). Moreover, the declines in fertility rates, as well as declines in family size, increasing childlessness, and delayed childbearing have freed many women to pursue employment opportunities outside the home. Completed family size, for example, decreased from 2.4 children in 1970 to 1 .7 in 1984 among gabardine women, and from 3.1 to 2.2 children among blacks (U.S. Department of Health And Human Services).With the increase of participation of women inthe labour force, an inverse reciprocal in the fertility rates is also observed. Along with sexual revolution and the greater involvement of women on the labour force, divorce revolution can be viewed as a related contributing factor to the decline of fertility rates. With more women gaining financial and social capabilities in the society, man and wife is straightaway viewed as something superficial especially with the legalization of divorce in developed countries such as the United States. Not only has marriage been increasingly pushed to a late age, but once accomplished, marriages are more likely to end in divorce than at any previous time in History. Preston and McDonald (1979) estimated that although 16% of all marriages in the United States in 1915 ended in divorce, 36% of the 1964 marriages will end that way. However, by 1988, the data were suggesting a levelling collide with at about 43% of marriages ending in divorce (Schoen and Weinick). The United States is certainly not odd in experiencing an increase in divorce probabilities.William Goode, in his book World Revolution and Family Patterns (1993), compiled data for Europe showing that throughout the said continent the percentage of marriages that will end in divorce most doubled between 1970 and the mid- 1980s. For example, in Germany in 1970 it is estimated t hat 16% of marriages would end in divorce, increasing to 30% in 1985. In France, the increase went from 12% to 31% during that same period of time. Australia has experienced similar trends (Weeks). With the said increase in the number of divorce cases, an inverse reciprocal for the fertility rate equals. Thus, divorce revolution is a cause of demographic winter. And lastly, the main culprit for all the causes of demographic winter is the inaccurate assumption make from the increasing population.As mentioned earlier in this paper, Stanford University professor Paul Ehrlichs controversial book The Population Bomb propagated the idea that the rapid increase in population will eventually lead to population explosion causing food shortage. Such occurrence according to him cannot be sustained by the global community. Malthusian Theory stating that human population grows exponentially while food business grows at an arithmetical rate, made people including Ehrlich that such insustainabili ty and shortage in resources is truly imminent. The predictions came true but not but as Ehrlich perceived it. The effects are mainly unfelt in the developed world and food production grew exponentially at a rate higher than population growth inboth developed and developing countries. Food per capita is the highest in history. During the greatest population-growth period in human history, food became cheaper and more enormous (prices dropped up to 70%). Population growth rates, on the other hand, significantly slowed down especially in the developed world (Erlich).The sad reality at present is this misconception still lingers on the suppositions of the educated ones. This instantly resulted to interference of government to population growth by creating and implementing policies that aims to decrease rates of population growth. Examples are reproductive Health Act in U. S. and One-child policy in China and Singapore. The biggest clashing on fertility from the tab was from elim inating unwanted pregnancies by 70% of married woman (Demographic Winter The new-made Economic Reality). Secularization is also a factor that affects fertility rates. The anti-Christian, anti-family ideology which can be rooted to the Marxist view of activists currently sweeping across most of Western civilisation has precipitated a culture of death that is slowly but inexorably killing off the human family. Those who believe about meaning of life have children. Those who fathert, dont (Feder). We can therefore say that all aspects of currentity work against family life and is in favour of singleness, having a small family, or opting to have no child at all. Add up to that none of these problems can be easily fixed. Its who we are and what weve become increasingly in these modern times.But the question here that remains is, if we are experiencing demographic winter, why is that population continues to grow? This now can be attributed to the Alternatives of developed countries to compensate for their declining population which is immigration (esp. on Europe and Australia) (Demographic Winter The New Economic Reality). Also, the issue of ageing population comes in. What we currently perceive is that death rate is less compared to before. less(prenominal) people are born but also lesser die thus creating that aged population. effrontery the origin, definition and causes of demographic winter, let us now focus to its effects on society. This can now be classified into (1) biological, (2) political, and to the (3) preservation. However, these can be inter-related. Research has shown that demographics can have a significant impact on countries stability, governance, economic development and the well-being of its people (Population Action International).As stated earlier, an ageing population is an issue that can be attributed tobiological effects of demographic winter. In 1998, there was a 48-year rung between births and peak spending of those individuals. Ja pan is one of the countries to first experience demographic winter after the world war for they did not experience the Baby Bomb, unlike U.S. Developed countries will have this age trap or the said modern inverted pyramid wherein number of grandparents is greater than the number of children. This is in contrast to the trend before wherein the number of children is greater than the grandparents. With this occurrence, the children will not be able to sufficiently take care of the old due to lack of number. Also, some countries might cease to exist. There are fifty-nine (59) nations, namely, Russia, China, Spain, Portugal, Canada, Italy, Germany, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong, (Central Inteligence Agency) with 44% of the worlds population that are now experiencing below-replacement birth rates. Worldwide, there are 6 million fewer children (under age 6) today than there were in 1990. The United Nations estimates that if current trends continue, by 2050 there will be 248 million fe wer children (under age 5) than there are now.Overall, Europes fertility rate is 1.3 a birth rate of 2.1 is needed just to replace current population. In this century, countries such as Italy, Spain, Russia and even France could cease to exist at least as theyre currently constituted. Demographer Philip Longman (author of The Empty Cradle How Falling Birth rates Threaten World Prosperity) observes The on-going global decline in human birth rates is the single most powerful force affecting the passel of nations and the future of society in the 21st century. Demographic winter is a great predictor of a countrys fate and future because children are essential for a countrys economic survival, Longman added. As Japans population has aged beyond 48 years old, its consumer spending has steadily declined. Here now enters the effects to economy. Never in history is an ageing population able to develop a prosperous economy (Demographic Winter The New Economic Reality). Why? The ratio of you ng to old will shift dramatically and wreak havoc upon existing social security and healthcare systems.The economy at large may also suffer, as the elderly cease spending and a smaller generation of workers is crippled by the taxes needed to support their parents. The world this will bring about, according to the filmmakers, is naked grandparents left untended and alone in the streets of Europe as intergenerational bonds areshattered the potential solitariness of small countries such as Latvia, and a worldwide depression that will touch even those countries that dont disappear under the sheath of snow that the film shows blanketing the entire globe. (Joyce). So argues Harry S. Dent, Jr., an economist who specializes in demographic-based economic forecasting, and who predicts that the West will follow Japans aging population bust. Politically, demographic winter can be associated with the voting body. A political analysis said that political preference reveals that the metaphori cal eggs of republicans rest entirely in one basket the votes of older white people. According to the exit polls conducted by the New York Times of the 2012 presidential election, Republican nominee Mitt Romney won 59 percent of white voters, and 56 percent of voters over age 65. The intersection of those two areas is the demographic base of the Republican Party, and it is dying.Markos Moulitsas posited that conservatives endeavours to weaken the social safety net have made it harder for these seniors who comprise the Republican base to stay alive (Atkins). While some may still debunk and not own the fact that such phenomenon is happening, it just happens, and will still continue despite of us shunning the thought of it. Demographic winter is no joke. Further neglect of the declining rates of population growth will soon not only affect political, biological, and economic aspects of society but may also jeopardize even the existence of mankind in the future. I value intellectual int egrity and the highest standards of academic conduct. I am committed to an ethical learning environment that promotes a high standard of honor in scholastic work. Academic dishonesty undermines institutional integrity and threatens the academic fabric of the University of the Philippines. And because I believe that dishonesty is not an acceptable avenue to success, I affix my signature to this work to affirm that it is original and free of deceit and plagiarism, and does not knowingly furnish false information. ______________________________Mary Philline DescalzoWorks CitedAtkins, Dante. Daily Kos. 23 June 2013. Web. 29 venerable 2013. . Central Inteligence Agency. The World Fact Book. n.d. Web. 12 September 2013. .Demographic Winter. n.d. 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